AIbanian Daily News had a comprehensive interview with the Croatian Ambassador to Albania, Zlatko Kramaric on various issues troubling the Western Balkans, the EU countries and the organization itself as well as on the expected result of the elections in the White House and its impact on the relationship of the US with EU and Washington's approach towards world affairs, including WB.
"The current political and economic relations in the world/region can be defined as 'the era of emergency! It is about a state in which there is no room for mistakes. This, in fact, means that if some decisions are not made today, it is no longer important whether they will be made tomorrow.
In any case, it will be too late! In this context, relations in the Western Balkans should also he analyzed. Many mistakes have already been made. Many decisions were not made on time, so now we have to face all the negative consequences of these unnecessary delays.
Kosovo is a political fact, a new state in these regions. Kosovo is a reality!" said the Ambassador, Kramaric in the following interview:
Albanian Daily News: Please how do you assess the current situation in the Western Balkans as slowly 2024 is entering in its last season?
According to you as a seasoned diplomat very familiar with the region, which is the perspective in the future, particularly against the background of the troubled world which is as it's suggested by many strategic analysts at the brink of a third world war?
Croatian Ambassador to Tirana Zlatko Kramaric:
I completely agree with those thoughts that define the current political and economic relations in the world/region as 'the era of emergency! It is about a state in which there is no room for mistakes. This, in fact, means that if some decisions are not made today, it is no longer important whether they will be made tomorrow.
In any case, it will be too late! In this context, relations in the Western Balkans should also be analyzed. Many mistakes have already been made. Many decisions were not made on time, lo now we have to face all the negative consequences of these unnecessary delays.
Kosovo is a political fact, a new state in these regions. Kosovo is a reality! And that should be the zero premise of all future decisions, which will define future relations in the area of the Western Balkans. Therefore, it is completely pointless to dispute this evident fact. (Still, five EU countries - sic! - did not recognize Kosovo, because they start from wrong premises - the case of Kosovo is a specific case that has no correlation with inter-ethnic relations in their countries). Finally, the meaning of good political strategies is expressed in the willingness to close the potential real crisis as soon as possible, that is, to solve it with serious political agreements, which are equally binding on all those who participate in these agreements. It must not be allowed that there are double standards, which enable some participants to not respect everything that was agreed upon, signed. This also calls into question the credibility of the international community itself, the EU, America.
Agreements must be respected, and we are witnesses that even ten years after the signing of the Agreement in Brussels, it is still not fully implemented - each side has its own interpretation of that Agreement! The fate of those Proposed Conclusions in Ohrid is similat Therefore, I am not too optimistic that those Proposed Conclusions in Ohrid is similar.
Therefore, I am not too optimistic that something dramatic will happen in the area of the Western Balkans by the end of the year. All the more so, as everyone is waiting for the results of the presidential elections in America.
There are important events (which happened or are ongoing) related with the architecture of the status quo in the region: The new configuration of Brussels' structure and the possible change of leadership at the White House. Do you expect any new joint US-EU endeavor to overcome the deadlock in the region leading to a breakthrough in the Pristina-Belgrade confrontation?
When it comes to defining future relations in the area of the Western Balkans, I do not expect any dramatic changes in the political strategies of both the EU and America. We agree with the opinion of the Bulgarian philosopher Ivan Krastev, who claims that if the EU wants to have appropriate answers/solutions to the crisis caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine, it should first review its 'Balkan experience!.
Namely, the fact is that the EU has lost its post-Cold War hegemony (which it achieved after the fall of the Berlin Wall and all those dramatic political processes in 1989. in Central and
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Eastern Europe), because, in the meantime, it has excessively devoted itself to problems related to the improvement of EU integration, and at the same time it is unable to manage the disintegration in its periphery/the Western Balkans. Finally, you should read serious authors, such as, for example, the American anthropologist C. Gertz, who as early as 1995 stated that the new international order will not be defined by the mass adoption of Western models, but by how much it will be able to control collective obsessions with topics such as identity and differences. The political agenda will not be determined by the question: "When will Serbia and Albania join the EU?", but "What is a state if not a nation" and "What is culture if not a consensus?"
A such retrograde process is possible, because Western democracy is completely emptied of any political imagination. Admittedly, it would be interesting to analyze all those cultural factors that led to this total emptiness. This is just one of the reasons why we do not expect any dramatic changes in political relations in this part of Europe. If we were cynical, then we could state that the future does not reside in these areas!
Admittedly, this statement about the lack of future is becoming more and more a planetary fact! Therefore, I would recommend to ADN readers the book "In the Long Run: The Future as a Political Idea" by Jonathan White, a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, who in that book offers an original interpretation of the crisis of democracy.
Do you think that Russia will exploit the changes in Brussels administration and in Washington to upgrade its influence in the region having a rising Serb support and of Republika Srpska and some circles in certain
Balkan countries?
I think that Russia's political-intelligence actions in the Western Balkans (first of all, we must bear in mind their immeasurable influence on political processes in Serbia, Montenegro, Republika Srpska) take place independently of what is currently happening in the EU, i.e. in America. All the more so, as I do not think that the political-economic strategies of the new Brussels administration will be significantly different from those insisted on by the old Brussels administration. Finally, the fact that Ursula von den Layen has regained the trust of Euro-MPs only further confirms our statement. Likewise, it is undoubted that both European and American policies are policies without any clearer projections of the future. Both in the EU and America, there is a great fear of the future, of uncertainty... At this moment, that part of the world is facing some other problem. First of all, these policies still do not have adequate answers to the uncontrolled movement of people from Asia, Africa, South America. Therefore, it is not unusual that this very topic is one of the most important election topics both in Europe and America. D. Trump has already won one election on this topic. Of course, any immigration results in dramatic changes within the demographic structure of certain nations, especially those of the "older" European nations. We do not think it is necessary to mention how these changes, in some European countries, can result in a whole series of negative, retrograde political processes, which have already, once not so long ago, brought humanity into great danger. Furthermore, we must not forget all those problems that are the result of dramatic climate changes, for which many serious theorists of society think that these problems, at this moment, represent perhaps a greater threat to world security than nuclear threats (with pleasure we can state that even V.
Putin no longer mentions the possibility of using nuclear weapons, because he is probably aware that there is no going back after that; however, you never know with such politicians, so there is no place for some of our excessive optimism).
However, these activities of Russia in the Western Balkans are the result of the weakness (more precisely, the indecisiveness) of European and American politics, which failed to completely stabilize that area. It remains unclear whether they did it on purpose or whether they were late with some decisions - both the Dayton, Kumanovo and Ohrid agreements stopped the wars in these areas, but in the end, not a single problem that led to the conflict was fully resolved. For some reasons (about which I do not want to speculate) it stopped halfway. Conflicts are only temporarily obscured with the possibility that they can be updated again at any moment!
Russian political intelligence strategies count on this fact. Recently, we could hear the President of Serbia commenting on the latest civil disobedience in Serbia - he refers to the Russian intelligence services, which claim that the real goal of these demonstrations is a coup d'état, the overthrow of Vucic, and that environmental problems are just an excuse to cover up the real goal -change of pro-Russian government in Serbia! Someone pro-European.
ADN readers are keen to learn which will be the approach of Croatia in the course of the events (expected and unexpected) in the region?
Croatia's foreign policy is defined, above all, two fundamental facts: a) Croatia is a full member of the EU: b) Croatia is also an integral part of the NATO pact.
And these two facts, to a large extent, bind Croatia. However, this very membership enables Croatia to actively participate in the creation of all Euro-Atlantic political strategies. It is very important to feel that your opinion on all important geo-strategic issues is respected, that you can freely articulate your views, that you have the opportunity to freely express your own views/point of view on certain topics.
Finally, Croatia is very interested in the area of the Western Balkans being an area of peace, stability, open economic cooperation, free flow of people, goods.
In many EU decisions, it is also possible to notice the presence of "Croatian views", because the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina received the "green light" from the EU for the start of negotiations is largely due to Croatian policy, which is aware that the European agenda is an essential condition for the political future, the survival of Bosnia as a functional state. Furthermore, Croatia is closely following the current politica processes in Montenegro. Namely, in that country, after the democratic change of government, there were certain changes that call into question the European future of Montenegro, because political options that call into question the Euro-Atlantic future of Montenegro participate in the government. It is precisely Montenegro that is a paradigmatic example of a state, which still has not managed to fully define its national identity. However, that problem is an internal matter of that country.
Croatia has made it clear that only pro-European Montenegro is an acceptable and desirable partner.
Likewise, Croatia is closely following the latest crisis on the border between Kosovo and Serbia, because this crisis is a clear signal that the 'frozen solutions' left by the EU in the Balkans can become a new source of conflict. Therefore, it is very important for Croatia to clearly define what exactly happened last year in the north of Kosovo in September, who is behind that par excellence terrorist action when Serbian paramilitary forces entered the north of Kosovo.
It is not possible that even after a year of that act, no one has been held accountable, and the main actor of that action, a certain Radojcic, is free to travel around Serbia, and in part of the public ne has the status of a hero (sic!). Furthermore, the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade must continue, but this time firm deadlines must also be given for the full implementation of some earlier agreements, Brussels, Ohrid, some recent initiatives, Macron & Scholtz, let's see what happens with the Washington agreement.
To conclude, Mr. Ambassador, how do you see the perspective of the war in Ukraine which is expanding and do you think what's happening there and elsewhere might turn into a global confrontation between US-led West and Russia which means a third world war?
It is said that pessimists are well-informed optimists, so we want to believe that after the elections in America, regardless of who wins, something positive will also happen in Ukraine. I think that there is also a desire in Russia to end this conflict, because we are not sure that Russia, in the long run, can financially follow the costs of the war. Finally, in all wars, as a rule, the richest win, so M. Gorbachev, precisely for economic reasons, was forced to carry out political reforms in the Soviet Union, which ultimately led to the dissolution of that world power. And we are more than convinced that all these financial sanctions, which most of the international community introduced to Russia, have really affected the
economic power of Russia. Therefore, it is also in Russia's interest that their 'special military operation', which suffered a major military failure at the very beginning and which, in the meantime, has turned into open aggression, is ended as early as possible. Of course, it will have to be seen which elements will be settled on the agenda of future peace negotiations.
Likewise, it will be very important that everything the West can offer Ukraine as possible compensation (membership in the NATO alliance, quick access to the EU, favorable loans for the reconstruction of the destroyed country). We have to keep in mind the existing situation, the harsh reality; Putin's Russia is not Germany in 1945! Therefore, these latest military activities of the Ukrainian army should be viewed in this context, Ukraine has shown the power to successfully wage war on the territory of Russia.
This is a strong message to the Russian public - gentlemen, we too can wage war in your backyard.
We think that this is the only way to create a critical mass even within the Russian public, which will influence the change of Russian policy, Russian military doctrine with its public protests.
Actually, we have had the opportunity to see all this before. Let's just remember the strong reaction of the American public to the senseless war that America waged in Vietnam in the 60s of the last century. It was only under public pressure that R. Nixon had to stop the war operations and sign an armistice. We expect that something similar will happen in Russia.
